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The Long View: I Detect a Pulse

 

We’re all tired of hearing about the recession—with its endless stream of bad economic news, mounting layoffs, failed banks, tight credit, tanking stocks, vanishing 401(k)s and... and... Well, you get the picture. It’s been grim.

But in recent weeks I’ve seen evidence that a pulse is returning to this economy. Where there’s a pulse, there’s life. And as we all know, where there’s life, there’s hope.

In early March stocks rose on news from a government employment report that showed that fewer jobs were cut in February than expected. Nationally, employers cut 36,000 jobs in February—much fewer than the 50,000 that was forecast by economists. Admittedly, that isn’t exactly wild-celebration-dancing-in-the-streets news—but the Labor Department’s monthly report is closely watched as it is widely seen as the most important economic indicator because employment is considered a key ingredient for a strong, sustained recovery. And in the same time period, the unemployment rate stayed at 9.7% while economists had predicted it would rise to 9.8%. Clearly this is encouraging evidence that we may be moving in the right direction. 

I’ve been casting about within our industry, chatting with various shops and manufacturers, and it seems the pulse is returning here as well. On the manufacturers front the uptick seems to be coming primarily from the consumables sector. Media and ink companies in particular are saying that their sales are picking up. More than picking up, actually—some are saying the phones have been ringing off the hook with orders. That means that a growing number of shops are making sales and needing media to fulfill them. 

And newly released empirical data backs the notion that sign shop owners are feeling more optimistic about future business conditions. A new report from the Sign Analytics research program—co-sponsored by Sign & Digital Graphics and The Visual Information Group LLC—clearly shows a marked improvement in companies’ expectations of sales looking ahead to the next six months. The trend for the overall U.S. sign industry shows that business confidence has returned to levels recorded before the economy reached a crisis point—a huge advance that bodes well for the future of our industry. (Turn to page 98 in this issue to read details from this fascinating report.)

And there is evidence that CEOs from other business sectors are coming out from under their desks. According to a new study from the New York-based non-profit research organization The Conference Board, the consensus among hundreds of CEOs of a cross-section of corporations is that the economy is clearly entering into recovery. The CEO Challenge 2010 Survey concluded that companies were no longer trying to weather the recession, but instead were looking to the future and a resumption of growth.

Still, as anyone who’s been around for any length of time knows—nothing’s ever easy. We’re not going to get back to business as usual just like that. According to Linda Barrington, managing director of human capital at The Conference Board, and one of the report’s authors, “recession-weary customers need to be wooed with significant new value to win back their business.”  

Still, everyone’s put business on hold for so long that it had to change at some point. And though I certainly don’t believe the recovery is going to necessarily be smooth or predictable—I honestly do believe we’ve turned a meaningful corner here, and that there’s well-founded hope for a prosperous future. 

Okay, let’s get back to work.

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