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The Long View: Are We There Yet?

When I was a little kid, our family sometimes took vacations in southern Florida, in the Fort Myers/Sanibel Island area. I loved it. White beaches, sand castles, tons of sea shells, swimming pools with slides, boat rides and ice-cream custard for desert. Unfortunately, getting there took forever. Our family of six would pack into the old Buick and drive all the way from our home in Detroit. The endless three-day car ride in the heat of summer in a vehicle without air conditioning was pure torture. 

 
My only entertainment—other than bickering with my siblings—was a dopey little puzzle game with sliding tiles you could assemble into a lame likeness of Popeye the Sailor. There was no iPod, no cool cell-phone apps, no texting, no CD or DVD player, no cruise control and, did I mention—no air conditioning. In the ’60s only the most expensive cars had that extravagance. My mom tried to convince us that we had “460 Air Conditioning,” but that only meant that we should open the four windows and go 60 mile per hour. Not nearly good enough to combat the 102 degree, 90 percent humidity weather as we were tooling south through Tennessee or Georgia. 
 
If we were lucky, my dad might buy us some comic books when we stopped for lunch somewhere south of Macon at a Howard Johnson’s restaurant—Archie and Jughead, or perhaps Casper the Friendly Ghost. Every few hours, as the miles dragged on, one of us kids would inevitably ask, “Are we there yet?” 
 
Reason and logic notwithstanding, we’d ask the question again and again. For every step of the agonizing journey, the goal of sunlit beaches and real ocean waves seemed farther away than ever. We were always told that we were getting there, but with no visible evidence. 
 
And similarly, as we lurch our way out of this god-awful economic recession, I can hear the plea going out from shop owners, manufacturers and distributors alike. People within every sector of our industry want to know, “Are we there yet?” 
 
Of course, despite the fact that a report by the Business Cycle Dating Committee of the National Bureau of Economic Research indicated that the recession officially ended in June 2009, we see no visible evidence. It may be that the economy is no longer shrinking, but it’s not doing much growing either. 
 
The follow-up question, like those we pleadingly asked my dad, is of course, “When will we get there?” And my father—whose nerves by this time were pretty much frazzled—would tell us that if we didn’t stop asking him right this minute, he’d turn the car around and take us straight home. 
 
Unfortunately—because this economic recession is so deep, and since there are so many factors unique to today’s situation—no one can tell us when we’ll return to a state of solid economic growth and prosperity. The global nature of today’s economy is unprecedented. Greek and Scottish governments jockey for financial bailouts, and Europe’s debt crisis continues to grow. At home, unemployment rates remain untenably high, job rates remain untenably weak, and credit for small businesses continues to be excruciatingly tight. Nevertheless, things do seem to be improving, albeit at a snail’s pace.
 
Are we there yet? Not by any means. Are we on our way? Definitely. Meantime, hang in there and try to think about the destination—pristine beaches and the smell of coconut oil. 
 
Okay, back to work.

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